By Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy and Market Research at FXTM
This market simply doesn’t add up.
Investors are happy to add risk into portfolios with stocks and oil prices cheering this sentiment but at the same time, gold has reached its highest level since October 2012. This is not a relationship that we expect and it is unusual for there to be a limited discussion about it.
Warnings about the risk of a second wave of coronavirus disease infections, the long-term economic damage as well as the loss of economic productivity today is all music to the ears of Gold investors. But, investors are also very excited about vaccine hopes and economies reopening. For better or for worse, this element of risk sentiment questions whether the blast higher in Gold can be sustained.
While there are a lot of reasons for investors to stay positive on Gold, we would require a close above $1750 to receive further encouragement that this rally can last.
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Although this rally for stronger risk appetite as well as oil prices suggests that commodity currencies would provide an interesting option to an investor’s portfolio at present. The Australian Dollar has surged by just above 100 pips today and the Daily chart suggests AUDUSD could attempt a further rally. If AUDUSD is able to break above 0.6569 it suggests that the pair will attempt to advance to levels not seen since the first half of March 2020.
(AUDUSD Daily FXTM MT4)
The Canadian Dollar is another commodity currency that looks interesting. USDCAD is 120 pips away from the bottom of a range that has been in play for just over a month. Should USDCAD drop below 1.3848 the pair could attempt to recover losses in the Canadian Dollar that have transpired since the coronavirus was named as a global pandemic.
(USDCAD Daily FXTM MT4)
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