10-Year Note Speculators sharply cut back on their bearish net positions

May 23, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -93,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 19th. This was a weekly change of 58,355 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,487 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 56,695 contracts (to a weekly total of 653,804 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -1,660 contracts for the week (to a total of 746,936 contracts).

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10-Year speculative bearish positions declined by the most in the past seven weeks this week. The bearish standing had risen in the past two weeks by a total of -102,063 contracts and climbed to the most bearish level in seven weeks before this week’s retreat by 58,355 contracts. Overall, the 10-Year standing has now continued to be in bearish territory for a total of 127 straight weeks, dating back to December 12th of 2017.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 53,372 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -43,895 contracts from the total net of 97,267 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.85 which was a shortfall of $-0.093 from the previous close of $138.95, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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