By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex
Early in February, “black gold” prices remain weak, although right now bears aren’t as active as a bit earlier. On Monday, February 3rd, Brent is trading at 56.22 USD, which is the lowest level since January 3rd, 2019.
According to the report from Baker Hughes, the Oil Rig Count reduced by 1 unit down to 675 over a week by January 31st. The total Rig Count showed -3 units and is now equal to 790. We remind you that over the year 2019, the number of rigs in the United States decreased by almost 25%. The highest reading was in October 2014, 1,609 units.
Right now, the Oil is suffering from the news that the Chinese coronavirus outbreak is spreading much faster than expected. At the same time, announcements from Chinese authorities that they are going to “pump” a lot of money into the country’s economy in order to neutralize the negative effect couldn’t calm the current situation on the market.
As we can see in the H4 chart, Brent has reached the predicted downside target; right now, it is still consolidating near the lows. Possibly, the pair may continue moving downwards and finish this descending wave: its previous structure has almost reached the target. As a result, the price may start a new rising impulse at any moment; the first target is at 60.35. If later the market breaks this level, the instrument may continue growing towards 64.94. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is about to leave the histogram area and start a new growth. After the line breaks 0, the price may boost its rising movement.
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In the H1 chart, after completing the descending wave, Brent has left the channel. The main scenario implies that the pair may form another rising impulse to reach 57.30 and then start a new correction towards 56.70, thus forming another consolidation range at the current lows. If later the price breaks 57.30 to the upside, the instrument may continue growing to reach 58.75. An alternative scenario implies that the pair may update 55.50 and then reverse to resume moving upwards. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving to the upside and trying to break 50. If it succeeds, the price may boost its growth.
Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.