US Dollar Index Speculators cut bullish bets for 5th week. AUD, CAD & MXN bets jump

November 9, 2019

November 9th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to reduce their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 28,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 5th. This was a weekly lowering of -1,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,509 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -2,200 contracts (to a weekly total of 34,983 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which fell by a lesser amount of -1,070 contracts on the week (to a total of 6,604 contracts).

USD Index speculative positions fell again for a fifth straight week and have now declined by -14,649 contracts over that time-frame. The current bullish position is at the lowest level in sixteen weeks, dating back to July 16th. Despite the recent bearishness, the dollar bullish standing has now remained above the +20,000 net contract level for sixty-eight straight weeks.


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Individual Currencies Data this week: AUD, CAD & MXN bets gain sharply

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw three substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar bullish bets jumped sharply this week. CAD bets have risen by at least +10,000 contracts in each of the past three weeks and overall, have gained in the past four straight weeks. The current bullish standing (+54,002 contracts) for the CAD is now at the highest level in one hundred and five weeks, dating back to November of 2017.

Australian dollar positions improved for a third straight week as bearish bets fell by more than 13,000 contracts this week. The recent improvements have brought the AUD bearish position down to the least bearish level (-26,794 net contracts) in forty-four weeks, dating back to December 31st of 2018.

Mexican peso positions rose strongly again this week and have risen by at least +11,000 contracts for the second straight week. The current overall standing for Mexican peso positions is now at the most bullish spot in twenty-three weeks at over +140,000 net contracts. The all-time record bullish high was reached earlier this year in April with a total of +156,030 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the British pound sterling (3,380 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (10,413 contracts), Australian dollar (13,493 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,438 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,495 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-1,130 weekly change in contracts), euro (-7,391 contracts), Japanese yen (-6,907 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,669 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 28,379 -1,130
EuroFx -60,746 -7,391
GBP -29,035 3,380
JPY -26,605 -6,907
CHF -14,153 -1,669
CAD 54,002 10,413
AUD -26,794 13,493
NZD -38,965 1,438
MXN 140,402 11,495

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,355 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -29,035 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly rise of 3,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,415 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators came in at a net position of -26,605 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -6,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,698 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,153 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,484 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of 54,002 contracts this week. This was a boost of 10,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,589 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of -26,794 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,287 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing recorded a net position of -38,965 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,403 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators reached a net position of 140,402 contracts this week. This was a weekly gain of 11,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,907 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).