Large Speculators cut back on their 10-Year Treasury Note bearish bets

November 17, 2019

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets for the first time in three weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -148,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 12th. This was a weekly change of 82,662 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,456 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -958 contracts (to a weekly total of 652,312 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -83,620 contracts for the week (to a total of 801,106 contracts).

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The 10-year speculators reduced their bearish positions after two weeks of strong gains in bearish bets that had pushed the overall standing to the most bearish in eight weeks. Following this latest decline, the bearish net position (currently -148,794 contracts) is back under the -200,000 contract level for the fourth time in the past five weeks and well under the 2019 average position level of -262,602 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 188,050 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -52,071 contracts from the total net of 240,121 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.50 which was a drop of $-0.42 from the previous close of $128.92, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (

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