US Treasury Bond Speculators raised their bearish bets last week

October 3, 2019

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US Treasury Bond Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the US Treasury Bond futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Treasury Bond futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -58,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 24th. This was a weekly change of -12,074 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,240 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -6,420 contracts (to a weekly total of 125,700 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) got a lift by 5,654 contracts for the week (to a total of 184,014 contracts).


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US treasury bond (long bond) speculators added to their bearish bets for the first time in three weeks. Previously, specs had decreased their bearish positions in four out of the previous five weeks after positions had reached a 2019 bearish high of -67,301 contracts on August 13th. Overall, the speculative position has now been in bearish territory for twelve straight weeks after a short bullish spell in June and early July.

US Treasury Bond Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 31,141 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 20,039 contracts from the total net of 11,102 contracts reported the previous week.

US Treasury Bond Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the US Treasury Bond Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $162.15 which was a boost of $3.75 from the previous close of $158.40, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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