Speculators reduce US Dollar Index, Japanese Yen bets while boosting British Pound, CAD & Euro bets

October 26, 2019

October 26th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to decrease their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 31,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly decline of -6,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,436 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sinking by -3,455 contracts (to a weekly total of 40,833 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a rise by 2,771 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,623 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators reduced their bullish bets for a third straight week and by a total of -11,818 contracts over that time-frame. Previously, the dollar bets had hit a 127-week bullish high on October 1st above the +43,000 net contract level before the recent cool off. Overall, the dollar position has now been in bullish territory for seventy-six straight weeks, dating back to May of 2018.


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Individual Currencies Data this week: CAD bets at 89-week high

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro bets surged this week by over +25,000 contracts following three straight weeks of declining positions (or higher bearish bets). The overall euro bearish standing (-51,050 contracts) fell to the least bearish position in six weeks. Overall, the euro position has been stuck in bearish territory for the past fifty-six straight weeks.

Japanese yen positions fell sharply for a second straight week and for the third consecutive week overall. The yen positioning (-18,165 contracts) is now in bearish territory for a second straight week after dropping by -17,653 contracts on October 15th. Previously, the yen had been in bullish standing from early August to October 8th.

British pound sterling speculators cut their bearish positions by over +20,000 contracts this week and bearish bets have now declined for six straight weeks. The current standing for GBP speculator positions (-52,440 contracts) is at the least bearish spot in nineteen weeks, dating back June.

Canadian dollar speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by over +20,000 contracts as the CAD positions rose for a second consecutive week. The gain for CAD bets brings the overall bullish position (+33,393 contracts) to the highest level in eighty-nine weeks, dating back to February of 2018.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (25,816 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (20,512 contracts), Swiss franc (1,431 contracts), Canadian dollar (20,432 contracts) and the Australian dollar (3,619 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-6,226 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-11,524 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-126 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-92 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range


See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 31,210 -6,226
EuroFx -51,050 25,816
GBP -52,440 20,512
JPY -18,165 -11,524
CHF -11,335 1,431
CAD 33,393 20,432
AUD -43,986 3,619
NZD -40,142 -126
MXN 112,950 -92

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -51,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,866 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level reached a net position of -52,440 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lift of 20,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,952 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of -18,165 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decline of -11,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,641 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,335 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,766 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of 33,393 contracts this week. This was a advance of 20,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,961 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures resulted in a net position of -43,986 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,605 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -40,142 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lowering of -126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,016 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 112,950 contracts this week. This was a weekly fall of -92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,042 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).