Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bullish bets, push Euro bets more bearish

October 12, 2019

October 12th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week following a strong run, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 39,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 8th. This was a weekly fall of -3,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,028 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -3,591 contracts (to a weekly total of 48,977 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decrease by -422 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,118 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators pulled back on their bullish bets for the first time in the past seven weeks. Last week, the spec positions had risen to the most bullish level (+43,028 net contracts) since April 25th of 2017, a span of 127 weeks. The dollar bullish standing has now been above the +30,000 net contract level for six straight weeks and despite the pullback this week, bullish bets have risen in twelve out of the past fifteen weeks.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the individual currency contracts data, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the British pound sterling (3,873 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (488 contracts), Australian dollar (5,358 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (4,257 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-3,169 weekly change in contracts), euro (-9,435 contracts), Japanese yen (-2,905 contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,014 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-416 contracts).

FX Notables:

Euro speculator positions continued to see more bearishness this week for a second straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Euro bets are now at the most bearish level since June 18th, a span of 17 weeks. Overall, the euro position has been in bearish territory for 54 consecutive weeks dating back to September 25th of 2018.

New Zealand dollar speculator bets improved this week after dropping to all-time record bearish levels in the previous two straight weeks. The decrease in the bearish positions this week brings the overall speculative position back under the -40,000 contract level after reaching that level last week for the first time in history. The NZD position has now been in bearish territory for thirty straight weeks after falling over from a total long position to a short on March 19th.

See FX position table and the individual currency charts below.


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 39,859 -3,169
EuroFx -75,413 -9,435
GBP -73,219 3,873
JPY 11,012 -2,905
CHF -11,047 488
CAD 5,313 -1,014
AUD -46,944 5,358
NZD -38,217 4,257
MXN 115,396 -416

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,978 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of -73,219 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly advance of 3,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,092 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of 11,012 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lowering of -2,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,917 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,047 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,535 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of 5,313 contracts this week. This was a reduction of -1,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,327 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -46,944 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,302 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -38,217 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 4,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,474 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators equaled a net position of 115,396 contracts this week. This was a weekly decline of -416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,812 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).