COT: Speculators sharply raise USD bets & VIX short bets, NZD bets fall to record.

September 21, 2019

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Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes.

This week in the COT data, currency speculators sharply raised their US Dollar Index bullish positions for a 4th straight week and pushed the USD position to the highest level since April 25th of 2017.

Speculators decreased their New Zealand dollar positions for the fifth time in six weeks and boosted their bets to a new all-time record bearish level. The NZD has now been in short territory for 27 weeks.

Australian dollar positions, on the other hand, improved for the fifth straight week and rose by over +12,000 contracts. Euro positions dropped again this week by over -18,000 contracts, falling for a 4th straight week and now are at the most bearish level since June.


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Precious metals speculators raised their Gold bullish positions higher after a sharp pullback last week. Two weeks ago, bullish bets rose above the +300,000 net contract level for the first time in just about 3 years.

Silver speculator bets dipped slightly again this week after rising in the previous 3 weeks. The silver position, despite the recent pullbacks, remains over the +50,000 net contract level for a 4th straight week.

Copper speculators decreased their bearish positions for a second week this week after previously recording a new all-time record high bearish position on September 3rd.

VIX speculators are continuing to build back their bearish positions and sharply added bearish bets to their overall net position. This week saw -32,222 contracts added to the bearish level and the VIX spec position is at the most bearish level since July 30th.

The 10-Year Bond speculators once again decreased their bearish bets this week for the 4th time out of the past 5 weeks. Specs have dropped their bearish positions by over 70,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks.

Lastly, the WTI Crude Oil speculators very slightly trimmed their bullish bets this week following last week’s strong gain (the most in 25 weeks). Crude bets have now totaled more than +400,000 contracts for a second straight week.


US Dollar Index Speculators raised bullish bets to high since April 2017. NZD bets hit bearish record

Large currency speculators boosted their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. See full article.


WTI Crude Oil Speculators edged their bullish bets slightly lower

The large speculator contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 427,105 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -1,100 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


10-Year Note Speculators continued to decrease their bearish bets for 2nd week

Large speculator contracts of the 10-Year Bond futures totaled a net position of -229,963 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 70,470 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Gold Speculators bullish bets rebounded this week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the Gold futures totaled a net position of 282,599 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 12,874 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


VIX Speculators sharply boosted their bearish bets again this week

Large stock market volatility speculator contracts of the VIX futures totaled a net position of -125,651 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -32,222 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Silver Speculators lowered their bullish bets for 2nd week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the silver futures totaled a net position of 55,978 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -4,253 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Copper Speculators reduced their bearish bets for 2nd week

Metals speculator contracts of the copper futures totaled a net position of -36,950 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 4,236 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).