10-Year Note Speculators decreased their bearish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

September 14, 2019

September 14th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -300,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 10th. This was a weekly change of 77,434 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,867 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 35,357 contracts (to a weekly total of 623,170 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -42,077 contracts for the week (to a total of 923,603 contracts).

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10-Year Note speculators decreased their bearish bets for the third time out of the past four weeks and pulled their overall bearish net position to the lowest standing in nine weeks. Overall, speculators have continued to maintain a bearish stance despite the strength and rise of the 10-year prices. This cycle has been markedly different from the past where the speculators were reliable trend-followers and correlated with the 10-year price (see chart below).

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 243,084 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -105,526 contracts from the total net of 348,610 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.15 which was a fall of $-1.96 from the previous close of $132.12, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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