US Dollar Index Speculators raised bullish bets for 6th week. Yen bets go bullish

August 10, 2019

August 10th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to increase their bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while Japanese yen bets popped into an overall bullish position, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 31,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 6th. This was a weekly lift of 1,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,283 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by just 26 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,331 contracts) but was helped out by the gross bearish position (shorts) which decreased by -1,020 contracts on the week (to a total of 18,002 contracts).

Speculators boosted their bullish bets for the sixth straight week and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. The current standing for USD Index speculators is above the +30,000 net contract threshold for a second straight week and is at the most bullish level since March 12th.


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Individual Currencies Data this week: (Also See Charts Below)

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Japanese Yen positions rose this week (+14,779 contracts) for a 3rd straight week and went from an overall bearish position into a bullish position for the first time since June 12th of 2018 (a span of 60 weeks). The yen has been receiving growing positive sentiment in recent months due to its safe haven status and now joins the US Dollar Index, Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar with overall bullish speculator positions.

British pound sterling positions went further bearish (-12,552 contracts) for an eighth straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Speculators have added -99,384 contracts to their bearish positions in just the past twelve weeks as sentiment for the GBP has crumbled. The current standing is now at the most bearish level since April 11th of 2017 when the net position totaled -105,901 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (1,046 weekly change in contracts), Euro (9,973 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (14,779 contracts), Canadian dollar (2,444 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (755 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the British pound sterling (-12,552 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,943 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,069 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-6,199 contracts).


Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 31,329 1,046
EuroFx -44,010 9,973
GBP -102,702 -12,552
JPY 10,561 14,779
CHF -16,431 -1,943
CAD 24,166 2,444
AUD -55,511 -2,069
NZD -11,564 755
MXN 122,069 -6,199

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,983 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -102,702 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lowering of -12,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,150 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators recorded a net position of 10,561 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 14,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,218 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,431 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,488 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of 24,166 contracts this week. This was a lift of 2,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,722 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of -55,511 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,442 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing equaled a net position of -11,564 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,319 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators resulted in a net position of 122,069 contracts this week. This was a weekly reduction of -6,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,268 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).