US Dollar Index Speculators pare bullish bets for 2nd week. Yen bullish bets rising

August 24, 2019

August 24th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators reduced their bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while raising their Japanese yen positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly reduction of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,842 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 1,189 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,063 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 1,532 contracts on the week (to a total of 19,564 contracts).

USD Index speculator positions fell slightly for a second straight week following six straight weeks of gains. Despite the recent declines, the overall net position continues to be strongly bullish and just under the +30,000 net contract level. The USD Index position, in fact, has remained remarkably consistent for over a year now as bullish positions have been above the +20,000 net contract level for fifty-seven consecutive weeks dating back to July of 2018.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, the currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (8,672 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,402 contracts), Japanese yen (6,412 contracts), Swiss franc (1,835 contracts) and the Australian dollar (131 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-343 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,163 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-4,813 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-7,203 contracts).

Notables:

Japanese yen positions have been on the upswing and have gained for five straight weeks. The yen has been the beneficiary of risk off tones in the markets and has now been in an overall bullish position for three straight weeks. Previously, the yen had been in short or bearish territory for fifty-nine straight weeks through July 30th.

Euro speculative positions improved this week and the overall net position fell under the -40,000 net contract level for the first time since July 23rd. The overall euro position remains in bearish territory but has come down from a total bearish position of -101,102 contracts on May 21st to -37,977 net contracts this week.

British pound sterling positions modestly improved for a second straight week this week. Previously, the GBP speculative positions had fallen for eight straight weeks and for eleven out of the previous twelve weeks which pushed the pound sentiment to the most bearish position since April of 2017 (a span of 121 weeks). The current standing remains highly bearish and close to the -100,000 net contract level.


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 29,499 -343
EuroFx -37,977 8,672
GBP -92,418 3,402
JPY 31,154 6,412
CHF -11,117 1,835
CAD 13,037 -1,163
AUD -62,781 131
NZD -18,260 -4,813
MXN 110,359 -7,203

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,649 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -92,418 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly gain of 3,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,820 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators was a net position of 31,154 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 6,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,742 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,117 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,952 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of 13,037 contracts this week. This was a decline of -1,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,200 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -62,781 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,912 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of -18,260 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly decrease of -4,813 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,447 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators reached a net position of 110,359 contracts this week. This was a weekly decrease of -7,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,562 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).