US Dollar Index Speculators nudged bullish bets up, Mexican Peso bets drop

August 31, 2019

August 31st – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 27th. This was a weekly lift of 398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,499 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) declining by -961 contracts (to a weekly total of 48,102 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a larger decline by -1,359 contracts on the week (to a total of 18,205 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators inched up their bullish bets this week following two down weeks. Overall, dollar index speculative positions have risen for seven out of the past ten weeks and maintain their bullish standing right around the +30,000 net contract level.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Mexican peso speculator positions fell sharply this week by over -17,000 contracts and declined for a fourth consecutive week. Peso positions have been one of the only currencies with positive speculator positions this year and reached an all-time record high bullish position on April 16th. Since then, bullish positions have been faltering and are now under the +100,000 net contract level for the first time since March 12th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (398 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,390 contracts), Japanese yen (2,453 contracts), Swiss franc (7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (1,749 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-827 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,132 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-7,787 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-17,045 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Japanese yen speculator positions continued to rise and have now improved for six straight weeks. The yen has risen by a total of +44,987 contracts in just these past six weeks as bets have now been in bullish territory for four weeks. The improved yen level marks the best standing since November 1st of 2016.

Swiss franc positions rose for a third straight week this week. The franc positions are now just barely in bearish territory (-3,800 contracts) and this marks the least bearish level since November 3rd of 2017 (a span of 99 weeks). Franc positions reached their most bearish level of the year on May 14th at -40,010 net contracts and have improved consistently since then as the franc benefits from risk off market themes (similar to the Japanese yen).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 29,897 398
EuroFx -38,804 -827
GBP -89,028 3,390
JPY 33,607 2,453
CHF -3,800 7,317
CAD 10,905 -2,132
AUD -61,032 1,749
NZD -26,047 -7,787
MXN 93,314 -17,045

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,977 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level was a net position of -89,028 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly boost of 3,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,418 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of 33,607 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly boost of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,154 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,800 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,117 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of 10,905 contracts this week. This was a decline of -2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,037 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures resulted in a net position of -61,032 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,781 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of -26,047 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly reduction of -7,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,260 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators reached a net position of 93,314 contracts this week. This was a weekly lowering of -17,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,359 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).