Trade war escalation, and recession fears – Gold stays bullish

August 28, 2019

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events 28 August 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While the economic calendar is thin today, the latest political developments have us instead looking at Gold, especially in regards to the trade war between the US and China.

In general, the picture in Gold stays clearly bullish after the continued escalation of the trade dispute last Friday. After the retaliation of China which was answered by Trump after markets closed on Friday, announcing new tariffs on Chinese goods and the growing expectation of an outright currency market intervention announced to devalue the US dollar are clearly risk-off-drivers and thus bullish for Gold.

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And while Trump tried to take the heat out of the trade dispute at the G7 meeting, saying that China called over the weekend, beginning an attempt to get at a table with the US again which was not confirmed by the Chinese, one thing became nevertheless certain: uncertainty in financial markets remains high.

That said, the long-side in Gold should be favoured and the dip in the precious metal, closing the gap over the weekend around 1,525/530 USD can be considered an interesting region for long engagements in Gold.

In general, the mode stays short-term bullish (Hourly chart) above 1,492 USD, a little longer-term (Daily chart) above 1,380 USD with an overall potential target around 1,650/700 USD in the weeks to come:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between May 29, 2018, to August 27, 2019). Accessed: August 27, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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