DE30 Analysis: Negative data bearish for German Stock Market

August 15, 2019

By IFCMarkets

Negative data bearish for DE30

German economy slowed in second quarter. Will the DE30 continue declining?

Recent German economic data were negative: second quarter GDP contracted as expected, and German economic sentiment tumbled in August. The GDP shrank 0.1% in the second quarter as forecast, and ZEW survey results showed the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany slumped from -24.5 in July to -44.1 August, the worst level since December 2011. And experts cite continuing US-China trade dispute and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit as additional downside risks for German economy.

Pressure on the already weak economic growth concerns about slowing growth of China’s economy. China’s industrial profits dropped sharply in the first two months of the year – 14%, adding to data pointing to slowing of Chinese economy. Weak economic data are bearish for DE30.

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DE30 breached MA(200) 08/15/2019 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe the DE30: D1 is retracing after climbing to 12-month high in the beginning of July. It has fallen below the 200-day moving average MA(200). This is bearish.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a sell signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates downtrend: it is widening down.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bearish signal: it is below the signal line and the gap is widening.
  • The Stochastic oscillator is falling but has not reached the oversold zone yet.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below lower boundary of Donchian channel at 11436.00. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the last fractal high at 11858.50. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (11858.50) without reaching the order (11436.00), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Order Sell
Sell stop Below 11436.00
Stop loss Above 11858.50

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets