US Dollar Index Speculators lifted their bullish bets. Mexican Peso bets jump higher

July 13, 2019

July 13th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly boost of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,417 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position going up by 2,982 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,479 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which fell by -1,657 contracts (to a total of 9,423 contracts for the week).

The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the dollar index for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s gain was the highest one-week increase in almost a year (since July 24th of 2018).


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The speculator position has been trending steadily lower ever since reaching a high above +40,000 net contracts on November 13th of 2018 but continues to remain in a relatively strong bullish standing.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Mexican peso bets rose by over +18,000 contracts this week after falling in the the previous two weeks. The peso positioning remains very bullish with a standing above the +100,000 net contract level for a seventeenth straight week. The peso bullish bets had recently hit a record high level on April 16th with a total of +156,030 contracts and is only one of three currencies (USD Index and Canadian dollar) with an overall speculator bullish position.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (4,639 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (314 contracts), Canadian dollar (2,933 contracts), Australian dollar (4,728 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,827 contracts) and the Mexican peso (18,115 contracts)..

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-4,132 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-8,738 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,424 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Canadian dollar bets rose for a third straight week and have now pushed their positions into a higher bullish level. The CAD positioning has now gone from -38,071 contracts on June 18th to +9,226 contracts this week and spent a total of sixty-six weeks in bearish territory before flipping to bullish last week.

Japanese yen speculators edged their bearish bets a bit higher this week after three weeks of lower bearish positions. The yen bets have been improving mightily over the past few months going from a total of -99,599 net contracts on April 30th to just -3,651 contracts this week.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 27,056 4,639
EuroFx -35,865 -4,132
GBP -72,982 -8,738
JPY -3,651 -2,424
CHF -10,428 314
CAD 9,226 2,933
AUD -54,007 4,728
NZD -22,205 1,827
MXN 126,382 18,115

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -35,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,733 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level reached a net position of -72,982 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly decline of -8,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,244 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -3,651 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decline of -2,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,227 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,428 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,742 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of 9,226 contracts this week. This was a increase of 2,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,293 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -54,007 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,735 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing was a net position of -22,205 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly increase of 1,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,032 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 126,382 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 18,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,267 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).