US Dollar Index Speculators edge bullish bets higher, Canadian Dollar bets gain sharply

July 20, 2019

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators once again lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly increase of 276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,056 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position falling by -27 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,452 contracts) while the gross bearish position dropped a little further by -303 contracts for the week (to a total of 9,120 contracts) .

Large currency speculators pushed their bullish bets for the US Dollar index higher for a third consecutive week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The US dollar index positions have remained in bullish territory now for sixty-two straight weeks and have continued to stay above the +20,000 net contract level for the past fifty-two weeks.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar speculator positions jumped again this week as CAD bets have now gained for four straight weeks and by a total of +59,035 contracts in that period. The spec bets have risen by at least +11,000 contracts in three out of the past four weeks. The current bullish standing is at the highest level since February 13th of 2018 (a span of 74 weeks). Prior to turning bullish a couple of weeks ago, the CAD speculator position had been in bearish territory for sixty-six consecutive weeks dating back to March of 2018.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (276 weekly change in contracts), euro (4,514 contracts), Canadian dollar (11,738 contracts), Australian dollar (1,431 contracts), New Zealand dollar (4,886 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,739 contracts)..

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the British pound sterling (-3,375 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-7,729 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,304 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro speculators continued to trim their bearish bets this week for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. Speculator positions have now gone from over -100,000 contracts on May 21st to -31,351 contracts this week. This current standing for speculative positions is the lowest bearish level since October 30th of 2018.

Speculators once again added to their bearish bets for the British pound sterling for a fifth straight week. The GBP speculator positions had been in bearish territory from June of 2018 until April 16th 2019 when bets landed in a small bullish position of just 922 contracts. Since then, however, speculator sentiment soured again and has not looked back with positions going from 922 contracts on April 16th to a total of -76,357 contracts this week in just a span of fourteen weeks.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 27,332 276
EuroFx -31,351 4,514
GBP -76,357 -3,375
JPY -11,380 -7,729
CHF -11,732 -1,304
CAD 20,964 11,738
AUD -52,576 1,431
NZD -17,319 4,886
MXN 128,121 1,739

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,865 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -76,357 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -3,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,982 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of -11,380 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decline of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,651 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,732 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,428 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of 20,964 contracts this week. This was a boost of 11,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,226 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -52,576 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,007 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -17,319 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,205 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 128,121 contracts this week. This was a weekly rise of 1,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,382 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).