Speculators add to US Dollar Index, CAD bullish bets. AUD, NZD bearish bets dip

July 27, 2019

July 27th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 23rd. This was a weekly gain of 1,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,332 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position rising by 5,766 contracts (to a weekly total of 42,218 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which saw a boost by just 3,970 contracts for the week (to a weekly total of 13,090 contracts).

Speculators have now pushed their bullish bets higher for a fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. The current standing for Dollar Index positions has risen to the most bullish level since April 9th, a span of fifteen weeks.


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Individual Currencies Data this week: CAD rises. AUD & NZD bets improve

Overall, for the individual currency contracts data, speculators increased their positions this week for the US dollar index (1,796 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (2,003 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,786 contracts), Australian dollar (4,596 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (5,094 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-7,653 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-2,226 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,461 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-3,366 contracts).

Notables for the week:

Canadian dollar speculator positions gained for the fifth straight week and have risen by a total of +68,821 contracts in that period. The positive sentiment in the CAD has pushed the speculator’s bullish level to the highest level since February 13th of 2018 and the CAD is only one of three major currencies with positive speculator sentiment (with USD Index and Mexican peso).

New Zealand dollar bearish bets have declined for five straight weeks after recently rising to the most bearish level of the year on June 18th at -24,468 net contracts. The NZD speculator bets have been in bearish territory since March 19th and went further bearish in May and into June after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered their interest rate in May. The recent cool off in bearish bets has brought the NZD bets to their best level (least bearish) since May 21st.

Australian dollar speculators trimmed their overall bearish position for a fourth straight week. AUD bets have been in a net short position since March 20th of 2018 which is a span of 69 weeks. Recently, despite two rate decreases by the Reserve Bank of Australia, speculators have lessened their bearish bets from -66,320 contracts on June 25th to -47,980 contracts through July 23rd (which marks the lowest bearish level since mid-April).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 29,128 1,796
EuroFx -39,004 -7,653
GBP -78,583 -2,226
JPY -9,377 2,003
CHF -13,193 -1,461
CAD 30,750 9,786
AUD -47,980 4,596
NZD -12,225 5,094
MXN 124,755 -3,366

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,351 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of -78,583 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lowering of -2,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,357 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators reached a net position of -9,377 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lift of 2,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,380 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,193 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,732 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of 30,750 contracts this week. This was a lift of 9,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,964 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -47,980 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,576 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -12,225 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly increase of 5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,319 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 124,755 contracts this week. This was a weekly reduction of -3,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,121 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).