10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets for 2nd straight week

July 27, 2019

July 27th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions for a second straight week in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -380,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 23rd. This was a weekly change of -32,947 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,222 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -2,482 contracts (to a weekly total of 678,489 contracts) in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) gaining by 30,465 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,058,658 contracts).


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Large speculators continued their bearish ways in the 10-Year Note futures this week with higher bearish bets for a second straight week and for the third time in four weeks.

The speculative position has been bearish dating all the way back to December of 2017 and reached an all-time record high bearish level on September 25th of 2018 with a total of -756,316 net contracts. Since then, speculator bearish positions have declined but have continued to remain overall bearish despite bonds being heavily bid throughout 2019. Speculators are usually reliable trend-followers but have been caught on the wrong side of this market so far this year.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,782 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 22,458 contracts from the total net of 289,324 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.79 which was an uptick of $0.51 from the previous close of $127.28, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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