The DAX30 CFD about to enter bearish seasonal window – but the Fed…

June 17, 2019

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 17, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we enter the start of the trading week the economic calendar is quite thin, so our focus will be on the technical and seasonal aspects of the DAX30 CFD.

From a purely technical perspective, the DAX30 CFD can be considered range-bound on an hourly time-frame between 12,050 and 12,220 points. The bearish tendency into the last weekly close gives the neutral picture a bearish touch, and a sustainable break below 12,050 points would likely be followed by a dynamic test of the region around 12,000 points, a drop below activates 11,900/930 points.

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This bearish touch is underlined by a bearish seasonal window beginning today: over the last 21 years, the DAX lost in 16, or 76% of the cases 187 points between the June 17-25. In the other 5 years, the DAX gained on average only 48 points with a maximum drawdown of only 144 points.

But with the Fed rate decision coming on Wednesday and current rising speculation of a equity-friendly rate cut – which is probably also the reason for the dynamic break to new yearly highs in Gold last Friday – we consider anticipating a break lower in the DAX30 CFD to be too aggressive, and favour a short entry only if we get to see a clear, clean, sustainable break below 12,050 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between May 27, 2019, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD daily chart (between March 5, 2018, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

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