Gold seeing new yearly highs into the weekly close

June 14, 2019

By Admiral Markets

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events June 14, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Today, we want to have a look at Gold. Even though last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed, and it took until Tuesday to see pullback against 1,325 USD, which we discussed in a recent technical analysis.

Last Wednesday, the precious metal took on serious bullish momentum again after the US Inflation data came in at 1.8% for May, up from a 5-month high in April – but below expectations of 1.9%.

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As a result, expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year edged higher, as the Fed Watch Tool‘s prediction for next week’s meeting now sees a 65% that the central bank doesn’t move, while one week earlier we stood at nearly 85%.

In addition to the weak NFP reading last Friday, and Fed chairman Powell opening the door for a potential rate cut on June 4, another disappointing economic data set like the Retail Sales today could trigger another push higher in Gold up to the multi-year-highs around 1,365 USD.

A break higher, driven by a surprisingly dovish FED which goes already with a rate-hike next Wednesday, would mean a strong mid-term buy-signal which sees a projected target somewhere around 1,700 USD, and possibly even higher.

In general, the bullish picture in Gold on a daily time-frame stays active as long as we trade above 1,266 USD:

Gold index daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 14, 2018, to June 13, 2019). Accessed: June 13, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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