10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets even higher this week

June 8, 2019

June 7th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -467,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 4th. This was a weekly change of -91,529 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,173 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 5,317 contracts (to a weekly total of 613,273 contracts) and being more than offset by the gross bearish position (shorts) that jumped by 96,846 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,080,975 contracts).


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The net speculative position has now had rising bearish bets in four out of the past five weeks. The bearish position has added a total of -179,781 contracts in that time-frame and is now at the most bearish standing since November 6th of 2018 when the level was -539,186 contracts.

Despite the speculators bearish sentiment, the 10-year note price has been very strong and rapidly increasing over the past month (yields falling), catching the speculators especially wrong-footed.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 418,961 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 112,652 contracts from the total net of 306,309 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $126.95 which was a boost of $1.56 from the previous close of $125.39, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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