US Dollar Index Speculators edged bets higher. British Pound bets fall sharply

May 25, 2019

May 25th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly edged their bullish bets higher in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 26,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 21st. This was a weekly increase of just 35 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,677 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 3,189 contracts which just overcame the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 3,154 contracts for the week.

The net speculative position had previously fallen for two straight weeks and for four out of the previous five weeks. This week’s slight uptick does not change the recent trend of the USD Index bets steadily trending downward.
Overall, the current standing has now been under the +30,000 net contract level for ten straight weeks.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

British pound sterling bets fell sharply more bearish this week after having pared bearish positions in the previous months. The GBP bets fell by more than -22,000 contracts this week to land at the most bearish level in the past ten weeks. Overall, the GBP sentiment continues to be negative as speculative bets have been in a bearish state for forty-eight out of the past forty-nine weeks.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (35 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (6,388 contracts), Swiss franc (2,515 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,352 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-1,722 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-5,801 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-22,834 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,065 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (574 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro speculators renewed their bearishness this week with a decline of more than -5,000 contracts. Speculators have really upped their negative view of this currency in recent months as bets have fallen in fourteen out of the past eighteen weeks. Currently, the spec standing is back over the -100,000 net contract level for the fourth time in five weeks.

Japanese yen positions have improved for a third straight week and by a total of +44,407 contracts in that period. The current standing is now at the least bearish level since March 5th.

Australian dollar bets continued to see bearish bets rise for a second week and for the fourth time in five weeks. The current bearish standing in the Aussie is now at the highest level this year and the highest since November 6th. Overall, the AUD has had a bearish net speculative position for sixty straight weeks.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 26,712 35
EuroFx -101,102 -5,801
GBP -26,152 -22,834
JPY -55,192 6,388
CHF -37,495 2,515
CAD -42,236 5,352
AUD -66,111 -2,065
NZD -10,864 574
MXN 146,485 -1,722

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -101,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,301 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level equaled a net position of -26,152 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly decline of -22,834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,318 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators was a net position of -55,192 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 6,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,580 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week was a net position of -37,495 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,010 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of -42,236 contracts this week. This was a boost of 5,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,588 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -66,111 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,046 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -10,864 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,438 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 146,485 contracts this week. This was a weekly decrease of -1,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,207 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).