RICE Analysis: Two major rice producers cut exports

May 6, 2019

By IFCMarkets

Two major rice producers cut exports

Vietnam and India have reduced the rice export. Will the quotations grow?

India reduced rice exports in the agricultural season 2018/19 by 7.2% compared with the previous season – to 11.95 million tons. In January-April 2019, Vietnam reduced rice exports by 7.9% compared to the same period in 2018 to 2 million tons. Note that India and Vietnam are the 1st and 3rd place in the world in the export of rice, and the 2nd place is Thailand.

Rice


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On the daily timeframe , Rice: D1 is in the medium neutral trend. It is moving towards the upper limit and various technical analysis indicators formed an uptrend signal. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of a further reduction in world exports.

  • The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
  • The Bollinger Bands narrowed, which indicates volatility decrease. The bottom line of Bollinger has a slope up.
  • The RSI indicator is above the 50 mark. It has formed a divergence to the rise.
  • The MACD indicator gives a signal to increase.

The bullish momentum may develop if Rice exceeds the 200-day moving average line and the last 3 upper fractals: 10.75. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the Parabolic signal, the last 2 lower fractals and the bottom Bollinger line: 10.2. After the opening the pending order, we shall move the stop following the Bollinger Bands and Parabolic to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. In case if the price meets the stop level (10,2) without reaching the order (10,75), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 10,75
Stop loss Below 10,2

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets