Intraday Technical Analysis 5 December

December 5, 2018

By Orbex

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading a bit volatile on Tuesday. Economic data on the day showed that consumer prices in Switzerland fell 0.3% on the month. This was worse than forecasts of a 0.1% decline. The data comes ahead of next week’s quarterly SNB meeting.

In the UK, the pound sterling jumped on initial reports from an EU court official who said that the UK did not require EU’s permission to cancel Brexit. However, the gains were quickly erased. Construction PMI data showed a modest increase to 53.4 in November, which came out better than the forecasts of a 52.5 increase.

Producer prices in the Eurozone soared 0.8% on the month in November beating forecasts of a 0.4% increase. Previous month’s PPI was also revised higher to show a 0.6% increase.

The NY trading session was relatively quiet. The USD eased amid new concerns that the growth was faltering. President Trump once again ramped up pressure on the U.S. China trade talks reminding about the 90-day truce period. Both nations are set to start negotiations in a few weeks.


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Earlier today, Australia’s quarterly GDP report showed that the economy expanded 0.3% in the three months ending September. This was lower than the forecast of a 0.6% increase as growth slowed from the second quarter’s robust growth of 0.9%.

Looking ahead, the ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at an event. His speech comes ahead of next week’s ECB monetary policy meeting. The Eurozone’s services PMI numbers will be coming out later in the day. Final services PMI for the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged.

In the UK, services activity is expected to rise modestly to 52.5 from 52.3 in October. Retail sales in the Eurozone is expected to tick higher to 0.2% increase on the month.

The NY trading session will see the Fed Chair giving his annual two-day testimony to Congress. Powell’s speech will come under scrutiny after his recent comments about Fed funds rate nearing the neutral level.

Later, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the BoC’s interest rate decision.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI report is forecast to ease to 59.2 from 60.3 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis

eurusd

EURUSD (1.1324): The EURUSD continues to consolidate with price action seen extending the declines. The common currency could be seen retesting the support area of 1.1315 – 1.1300 level. We expect a rebound off this level as the ranging price action is maintained. Failure to hold the declines at the support level could, however, push the EURUSD lower. This would open the way for price action to fall back to test the previously established lows at 1.1220.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

gbpusd

GBPUSD (1.2696): The GBPUSD currency pair turned volatile on Tuesday. The pound sterling briefly attempted to break past the falling trend line but turned lower promptly. This sent the GBPUSD down to the lower support level at 1.2683 level. As this lower support is being tested, there is a risk that the GBPUSD could extend the declines even lower. However, with volatility rising, we could expect to see a strong breakout in either direction. For the moment, this bias is to the downside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

xauusd

XAUUSD (1234.73): Gold prices posted strong gains as price action briefly touched the 1242.25 level of resistance. However, as price briefly retested this resistance level, we expect to see a firm close near 1242.25. To the downside, we expect the support at 1227.10 to be tested. As a result, it is ideal to look for short positions around the 1242.25 level as gold prices could start a correction lower. Below 1227.10, further declines could push gold prices down to the previous support at 1217.99.

By Orbex