Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets for 4th week. Yen bets rise.

December 15, 2018

December 15th 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 38,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 11th. This was a weekly lowering by -327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,449 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position advancing by 1,307 contracts to a weekly total of 46,660 contracts but being more than overcome by the gross bearish position which saw a lift by 1,634 contracts for the week to a total of 8,538 contracts.

The speculative position in the USD Index has now declined for four straight weeks after a streak of seven weekly gains. The current standing remains in a strong bullish position but under the +40,000 net contract level for a fourth week in a row.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Japanese yen positions rose by over +12,000 net contracts this week after falling in the previous two weeks. The increase for the yen brought the overall bearish position to under the -100,000 contract level for the first time in five weeks. Yen positions have now been in bearish territory for 26 straight weeks dating back to June 26th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (4,489 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (12,160 contracts), Swiss franc (1,528 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,267 contracts), Australian dollar (5,224 contracts), New Zealand dollar (6,056 contracts) and the Mexican peso (6,919 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-327 weekly change in contracts) and the British pound sterling (-2,669 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 38,122 -327
EuroFx -56,287 4,489
GBP -42,419 -2,669
JPY -97,606 12,160
CHF -18,267 1,528
CAD -11,669 1,267
AUD -45,531 5,224
NZD -15,241 6,056
MXN 11,442 6,919

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,776 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -42,419 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly decline of -2,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,750 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of -97,606 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly gain of 12,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,766 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,267 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,795 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -11,669 contracts this week. This was a lift of 1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,936 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures reached a net position of -45,531 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,755 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -15,241 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 6,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,297 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators reached a net position of 11,442 contracts this week. This was a weekly increase of 6,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,523 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).