Currencies: US Dollar Index Speculators trimmed bets for 3rd week. Euro, Peso, Yen bets fall

December 10, 2018

December 10th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday which was delayed due to former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral last week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 38,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 4th. This was a weekly lowering of -858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,307 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position lowering by -996 contracts to a weekly total of 45,353 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a reduction by -138 contracts for the week to a total of 6,904 contracts.

The USD Index bets have now fallen for three straight weeks following a streak of seven consecutive weekly gains. The current standing remains under the 40,000 net contract level for a third week after surpassing that level in the preceding two weeks on the way to marking an 81-week highpoint.


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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Mexican peso positions fell sharply this week following three straight weeks of gains. The peso position dropped to the lowest level since the standing was negative (-12,510 contracts) on June 26th of this year. Despite this week’s decline, peso bets have continued to remain in bullish territory for the past 23 weeks.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions last week were the Swiss franc (1,273 weekly change in contracts) and the Australian dollar (3,148 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week were the US dollar index (-858 weekly change in contracts), euro (-5,705 contracts), British pound sterling (-600 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,442 contracts), Canadian dollar (-4,306 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-757 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-10,804 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 38,449 -858
EuroFx -60,776 -5,705
GBP -39,750 -600
JPY -109,766 -5,442
CHF -19,795 1,273
CAD -12,936 -4,306
AUD -50,755 3,148
NZD -21,297 -757
MXN 4,523 -10,804

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing last week resulted in a net position of -60,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,071 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level equaled a net position of -39,750 contracts in the data reported last week. This was a weekly decline of -600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,150 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators reached a net position of -109,766 contracts in last week’s data. This was a weekly decrease of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,324 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing last week resulted in a net position of -19,795 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,068 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of -12,936 contracts last week. This was a fall of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,630 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -50,755 contracts last week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,903 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing recorded a net position of -21,297 contracts last week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly reduction of -757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,540 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators resulted in a net position of 4,523 contracts last week. This was a weekly decrease of -10,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,327 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).