The German GDP was confirmed to have declined 0.2% in the third quarter, data from Destatis showed on Friday. Flash manufacturing and services PMI were also weaker. The data suggested that there is a likelihood of a further slowdown in business activity in the Eurozone.
While the U.S. markets were quiet, Canada’s monthly inflation jumped 0.3% beating estimates of a 0.1% increase. This partly reversed the 0.4% decline seen the month before. Core CPI advanced 0.4% after a flat print previously.
Retail sales for Canada showed a 0.2% increase which was better than the estimates. Core retail sales, however, rose 0.1% missing estimates.
New Zealand’s retail sales data released early Monday showed that the quarterly retail sales were flat for the third quarter. Core retail sales rose 0.4% on the quarter missing estimates of a 1.5% increase.
The EU summit was held in Brussels on Sunday. This follows last week’s EU and the UK Brexit draft deal. EU leaders unanimously agreed to the Brexit deal. The UK needs to get a parliamentary approval on the agreement before finalizing the terms.
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Looking ahead, the economic data today is relatively quiet. The German Ifo business climate report is due. This is followed later in the afternoon by ECB Draghi’s speech followed the BoE Governor Carney.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1344): The EURUSD currency pair has been consolidating within the range of 1.1435 – 1.1300. The attempt to test this resistance saw price action closing lower. We expect the EURUSD currently test the lower support area around 1.1315 – 1.1300. A reversal off this support level will mark a retest of the breakout from the falling price channel. A rebound in price action could mean that the euro could once again test the resistance level. A breakout from the resistance area is required for the common currency to post further gains.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.2814): The GBPUSD continues to remain volatile with price action seen consolidating around the support level of 1.2808. The lower support at 1.2683 remains untested which remains a risk to the downside. In the medium term, the GBPUSD is likely to stay range bound with the Brexit related news likely to push the currency pair around.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1224.67): Gold prices settled near the support/resistance area of 1223.50. Price action is seen showing signs of exhaustion to the upside. This could potentially increase the risk of a decline to the minor support level of 1213.55. A reversal off this support level could once again revive the bullish momentum. However, failure to hold the declines could push gold prices lower to the next support level of 1204.08. To the upside, gold prices could still be aiming for the next resistance level at 1238.00.