Forex Speculators raised US Dollar Index bets while Euro, Yen, Aussie, Kiwi bets go more bearish

October 13, 2018 – By CountingPips.comGet our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index speculator positions are at highest level since May 2nd of 2017

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators once again raised their bullish bets for the US Dollar Index while betting against many of the major currencies and increasing their bearish positions.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 37,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 9th. This was a weekly boost of 673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,036 net contracts.

The speculative position in the USD Index has risen for two straight weeks and for the twenty-third time out of the past twenty-five weeks. The current standing is at the highest bullish level since May 2nd of 2017 when the net position totaled 40,020 contracts.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the individual currency contracts data, we did not see any substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week but we did have some notable levels hit by some of the major currencies.

Euro bets dropped rather sharply for a 2nd straight week and are in bearish territory for a second conseuctive week. Euro spec positions have gone from a position of over +100,000 contracts in late May to a total of -16,142 contracts this week.

Japanese yen positions fell for the sixth consecutive week. The yen position is above the -110,000 net contract level for a second straight week and is now at the highest bearish standing since February 13th.

Australian dollar positions declined for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The current standing for the Aussie spec bets is now at the most bearish level since March 10th of 2015 when the net position equaled -76,851 contracts.

New Zealand “kiwi” dollar speculator bearish bets advanced this week after two weeks of small declines. The rise in bearish positions has now put the current standing at the most bearish level on record (our data going back to 1999) at above -33,000 net contracts.

Overall, the currencies that improved this week were the US Dollar Index (673 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (599 contracts), Canadian dollar (6,339 contracts) and the Mexican peso (620 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets decreased this week were the euro (-9,041 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-1,167 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,155 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,566 contracts), and the New Zealand dollar (-3,224 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -5,438 4,062 -16,142 -9,041
GBP 76,085 -2,580 -60,507 -1,167
JPY 138,202 2,202 -115,201 -1,155
CHF 27,715 4,619 -12,803 599
CAD 8,203 -2,084 -12,145 6,339
AUD 93,869 3,622 -73,284 -1,566
NZD 38,042 2,747 -33,820 -3,224
MXN -78,809 -1,562 74,449 620

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com