Forex Speculators raised US Dollar Index bets higher. AUD, GBP bets fall sharply

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.comGet our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large currency speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in favor the US Dollar Index futures markets this week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 37,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly lift of 2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,495 net contracts.

Speculative positions continue to plow forward with bullish bets rising for a second straight week and for the twenty-first time out of the past twenty-two weeks. The current standing is now at the highest bullish position since May 2nd of 2017 when the net position totaled +40,020 contracts.


Aggregate US Dollar Position pushes higher this week

US Dollar net speculator positions rose to $22.98 billion this week

An aggregate measure of the US dollar position – the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc – showed that currency speculators raised their bets to a US dollar net position of $22.98 billion as of Tuesday September 18th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly gain of $3.82 billion from the $19.16 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation.

This aggregate speculative position is back above the +$22 billion dollar level for the first time in three weeks. The overall standing has now been in bullish territory for the past fourteen weeks.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the individual currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category.

Australian dollar bets dropped by the most in thirteen weeks to the most bearish level since March of 2015. The AUD sentiment has fallen for two straight weeks and has now been in bearish territory for 25 consecutive weeks.

British pound sterling positions fell further bearish this week and by the largest weekly amount in thirteen weeks. The current standing for the pound speculator sentiment is at the most bearish level since May of 2017.

Swiss franc speculator positions jumped this week by over +16,000 contracts and improved for the fourth straight week. The current standing is at the least bearish level of the past twenty weeks.

Mexican peso spec positions rose sharply by over +25,000 contracts this week and gained for a second straight week. The overall bullish position is now at the highest level since May 15th when the net position totaled +52,778 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improvement were the US Dollar Index (2,961 weekly change in contracts), the Swiss franc (16,912 contracts) and the Mexican peso (25,977 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-9,504 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-18,079 contracts), Japanese yen (-9,869 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,169 contracts), Australian dollar (-23,691 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-9,342 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -22,988 10,423 1,666 -9,504
GBP 103,687 20,490 -79,258 -18,079
JPY 93,174 18,877 -63,755 -9,869
CHF 24,124 -21,511 -18,438 16,912
CAD 57,484 22,777 -30,111 -3,169
AUD 93,785 26,940 -68,003 -23,691
NZD 35,925 8,977 -31,989 -9,342
MXN -44,779 -26,659 40,513 25,977

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com