Forex Speculators raised US Dollar bearish positions to more than $-22 billion

April 14, 2018

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-22.77 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their aggregate bearish bets of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-22.77 billion as of Tuesday April 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-2.06 billion from the $-20.71 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

This week’s advancement of the aggregate bearish position reverses the data of the past two weeks which had seen the bearish position decline. The dollar level has now been higher than a $-20.0 billion position for four straight weeks and has fallen by approximately $-18.0 billion since the beginning of the year.


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

Euro speculative bets surged higher this week by over +13,000 contracts after a down week last week. The jump in bullish positions this week brought the overall net position (+147,463 contracts) to just a hair under the all-time high position that was recorded on January 31st with a total standing of +148,742 contracts.

Overall and elsewhere, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (13,082 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (2,678 contracts), Canadian dollar (200 contracts), New Zealand dollar (4,450 contracts) and the Mexican peso (3,138 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-811 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-833 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,721 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -180,623 -19,356 147,463 13,082
GBP -57,878 -3,393 43,016 2,678
JPY -10,326 961 2,761 -811
CHF 18,184 3,438 -10,744 -833
CAD 31,443 -1,675 -31,672 200
AUD 7,936 3,030 -2,796 -2,721
NZD -23,493 -4,788 22,827 4,450
MXN -106,913 -1,951 102,218 3,138

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com