Forex Speculators slightly raised US Dollar bearish bets

March 10, 2018

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US Dollar net speculator positions slid to $-11.46 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bearish positions in the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-11.46 billion as of Tuesday March 6th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.17 billion from the $-11.29 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

This week’s US dollar aggregate position dip was the second consecutive weekly decline. The aggregate level is now at the most bearish level since February 6th when the overall standing was $-12.93 billion.

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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The currency speculator positions that rose against the US dollar this week were the Japanese yen (9,806 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (7,522 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (1,021 contracts).

The currencies that saw declines this week were the euro (-5,005 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-7,423 contracts),Canadian dollar (-2,655 contracts), Australian dollar (-6,439 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-9,212 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -173,830 2,625 132,972 -5,005
GBP -19,122 5,918 5,264 -7,423
JPY 76,881 -11,695 -86,845 9,806
CHF 7,296 -8,837 -8,477 7,522
CAD -22,630 15,503 19,565 -2,655
AUD -4,994 8,127 3,135 -6,439
NZD -1,174 -1,471 30 1,021
MXN -86,528 8,484 83,295 -9,212


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price


British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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