10-Year Note Speculators sharply cut back on their net positions this week

February 3, 2018

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond market speculators continued to remain very bearish in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -215,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 30th. This was a weekly lowering of -97,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,877 net contracts.

Speculators have increased their bearish bets for a second straight week in the 10YR and for three out of the last four weeks. The 10YR spec positions are now at the lowest level since March 7th 2017 when net positions totaled -298,514 contracts.


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10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 499,265 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 101,784 contracts from the total net of 397,481 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $103.27 which was a shortfall of $-0.78 from the previous close of $104.05, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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