Robust ADP payrolls raises the bar for December NFP

January 5, 2018

By Orbex Blog

Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/01/2018

Data from the UK saw the services PMI edging slightly higher. The services sector activity rose 54.2, beating estimates of 54.1 and ending up slightly higher than November’s 53.8 reading.

Private payrolls hiring was seen rising robustly on the back of the holiday season. Data from ADP/Moody’s showed that the private sector hiring increased by 250k in December. This was higher than the estimates of 191k. November’s ADP payrolls were revised down to 185k.

Looking ahead, the markets will be shifting focus to the nonfarm payrolls report that is due today. Market expectations call for a 190k estimate on the jobs added during the month. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1% while the average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month. Following the payrolls report, ISM will be releasing the non-manufacturing PMI data which is expected to show a modest increase to 57.6.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD 05.01.18

EURUSD (1.2071): The EURUSD managed to erase the intraday losses as the currency pair settled near the previous highs towards the close. Price action briefly tested the highs near 1.2091 before easing back. On the intraday charts, we see the Stochastics posting a bearish divergence. Failure to break out above 1.2091 could signal short term correction in price. The lower support is found at 1.1900 which could be the downside target on a correction in price.


USDJPY intra-day analysis

USDJPY 05.01.18

USDJPY (112.88): The USDJPY managed to recover the losses as the currency pair was seen posting strong gains. The yen was seen weakening as USDJPY is likely to extend the gains back to the 113.00 level of resistance. A breakout to the upside based on the bullish momentum could keep the currency pair poised for further upside. However, any weakness could keep the USDJPY range bound within 113.00 and 112.04 level within which the currency pair has been consolidating for the past few weeks.


NZDUSD intra-day analysis

NZDUSD 05.01.18

NZDUSD (0.7158): The New Zealand dollar managed to keep the bullish momentum going as price action was seen testing the target of 0.7160. We expect to see NZDUSD easing from its bullish momentum near this level. Lower support is seen at 0.7062 which could be the immediate downside. The NZDUSD could maintain a sideways range if supported above this level. A break down below could however spell further declines down to 0.6917.