Forex Speculators push US Dollar bets lower, Euro bets jump to record high

January 13, 2018

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US Dollar net speculator positions dropped to $-8.85 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bearish bets for the US dollar this week. Meanwhile, in the individual currency contract levels, speculators pushed euro bets to an all-time record high level (more below).

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-8.85 billion as of Tuesday January 9th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-4.23 billion from the $-4.62 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative position has now fallen for two straight weeks and has pushed USD bets to the most  bearish level since October 10th 2017 when the aggregate level was $-12.65 billion.

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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

The Euro speculative bets jumped by over +16,000 bets this week following a gain by over +35,000 bets last week and pushed the bullish net position level to the highest level on record at +144,691 net contracts. Euro bets have gained for three straight weeks and for five out of the last six weeks.

The Australian dollar bets, meanwhile, spiked higher by over +25,000 bets this week and brought the Aussie currency speculative standing out of the bearish position it has been in for the previous three weeks.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (16,823 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (9,257 contracts), Canadian dollar (2,722 contracts), Australian dollar (25,484 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (5,968 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-3,770 contracts), Swiss franc (-5,690 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-5,261 contracts).


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -183,661 -17,729 144,691 16,823
GBP -42,055 -11,288 25,492 9,257
JPY 140,893 6,021 -125,536 -3,770
CHF 35,319 5,192 -21,922 -5,690
CAD -41,751 -10,869 17,461 2,722
AUD -12,969 -28,502 5,458 25,484
NZD 11,930 -6,717 -11,017 5,968
MXN -29,571 4,920 29,797 -5,261


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price



British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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