FX Speculators raised US Dollar bullish bets for 1st time in 3 weeks

June 10, 2017


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US Dollar net speculator positions rose to $8.00 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for the first time in three weeks last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $8.0 billion as of Tuesday June 6th according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly gain of $0.47 billion from the $7.53 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

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The aggregate US dollar positions, despite the weekly gain, remain below the $+10 billion level for a third consecutive week after staying above that level from September 27th 2016 to May 23rd.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currency contracts movements this week were highlighted by continuing positive sentiment for the euro and the Mexican peso.

The euro speculator bids continued to gain for a seventh straight week and sent euro positions to the highest net bullish position since May 3rd 2011 when net positions totaled +99,516 contracts.

The Mexican peso positions rose for a second straight week and fourth out of the last fifth to the highest level since June 10th 2014 when net positions equaled +90,203 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (1,140 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (1,957 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,686 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,184 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,819 contracts).

Meanwhile, the currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-7,065 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-2,752 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-3,181 contracts).


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -91005 2635 74009 1140
GBP 38748 5283 -36716 -7065
JPY 62302 -4722 -55027 -2752
CHF 15813 -2294 -16555 1957
CAD 105838 -3536 -94501 3686
AUD 8219 937 -114 -3181
NZD 13108 -1119 -10786 1184
MXN -91251 -10264 84821 9819


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price



British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com