Forex Futures Speculators slightly increased bullish net position in US Dollar last week

June 5, 2016

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

US Dollar net speculator positions rose last week to +$4.86 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar last week as speculative positions remained in a small bullish position for a second straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$4.86 billion as of Tuesday May 31st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.13 billion from the +$3.73 billion total short position that was registered on May 24th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side against the US dollar were the Canadian dollar (+6,212 change in weekly contracts), the euro (+241 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+928 contracts).


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Canadian dollar positions rebounded after two straight weeks of lower speculative positions while the euro and New Zealand dollar positions also gained after two down weeks of speculative positions.

Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were the Japanese yen (-7,222 weekly change in contracts), the Australian dollar (-4,882 contracts), the Mexican peso (-8,155 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,825 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-16 contracts).

Notable changes showed that Australian dollar positions fell for a fifth straight week and have fallen into a bearish net position for the first time since February at -4,758 net contracts.

Japanese yen net bullish positions continued to drop for a sixth straight week and are now at the lowest bullish position since January.

Weekly-Spec-Changes-COT

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 44726 -7214 -39667 7250
20160503 27558 -17168 -23619 16048
20160510 29484 1926 -21872 1747
20160517 34116 4632 -22587 -715
20160524 48501 14385 -37895 -15308
20160531 50714 2213 -37654 241

 

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 67606 -3413 -48669 6483
20160503 56878 -10728 -40408 8261
20160510 55022 -1856 -34935 5473
20160517 60935 5913 -38422 -3487
20160524 54031 -6904 -32835 5587
20160531 51984 -2047 -32851 -16

 

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 -67685 9144 66498 -5372
20160503 -65495 2190 61521 -4977
20160510 -63294 2201 59047 -2474
20160517 -62439 855 58919 -128
20160524 -23035 39404 22059 -36860
20160531 -13526 9509 14837 -7222

 

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 -4664 5363 9265 -145
20160503 -4870 -206 6829 -2436
20160510 -978 3892 6917 88
20160517 4440 5418 4147 -2770
20160524 11498 7058 3954 -193
20160531 13820 2322 129 -3825

 

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 -25684 -7619 11999 4691
20160503 -30745 -5061 18943 6944
20160510 -33890 -3145 25874 6931
20160517 -33527 363 22706 -3168
20160524 -25595 7932 20047 -2659
20160531 -30322 -4727 26259 6212

 

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 -68470 -14919 59540 15434
20160503 -58577 9893 52395 -7145
20160510 -42718 15859 38158 -14237
20160517 -26088 16630 24893 -13265
20160524 -605 25483 124 -24769
20160531 8618 9223 -4758 -4882

 

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 -9373 -3414 7384 2033
20160503 -10543 -1170 9200 1816
20160510 -9689 854 9352 152
20160517 -6825 2864 6688 -2664
20160524 -4184 2641 4576 -2112
20160531 -5439 -1255 5504 928

 

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160426 19344 5881 -19315 -4906
20160503 12550 -6794 -12420 6895
20160510 47903 35353 -45220 -32800
20160517 48932 1029 -45691 -471
20160524 50128 1196 -47460 -1769
20160531 58047 7919 -55615 -8155

 

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com